Nowadays, 5G technology is in full swing. 2019 is the key year for 5G startup. Once it is mass-produced, the whole industry will show a booming trend from chip to communication equipment manufacturers, and from operators to 5G applications. Global market research institute TrendForce pointed out that although the 5G base station for commercial communication is still not universal, in order to adapt to the high-speed transmission era and seize the market opportunities, the world's major brands in the United States, South Korea, Japan, China and etc. will continue to carry out 5G business planning. It will vigorously invest in the research and development of 5G mobile phones, of which the Android camp is the fastest. In 2019, the advent of 5G mobile phones will become the focus of the market.
On January 8, Deloitte released the "2019 Technology, Media and Telecom Industry Forecast" report. According to Deloitte's forecast, 25 wireless carriers will launch 5G services in 2019, and this number will double by 2020. In addition, sales of 5G mobile phones are expected to exceed 1 million units in 2019, and will increase to 15 million to 20 million units by 2020. The sales of 5G "puck" devices/modems will reach 1 million units. According to the plan, China is expected to conduct 5G trial commercial use in 2019 and officially commercialize it in 2020.
Despite this, a senior industry insider said that the application of 5G communication is still in its infancy. Whether 5G can be rapidly spread mainly depends on whether the carrier base station and equipment can be quickly spread out over a large area. In addition to the problem of insufficient infrastructure, the R&D cost of 5G mobile phones will be greatly improved. In terms of the average bom cost of the flagship machine, the bom cost of 5G mobile phones will increase by 20%-30%. Secondly, there are also some issues such as excessive power consumption affecting standby time, as well as pricing strategies. TrendForce said that The popularization of 5G mobile phone still needs to wait for the telecom operators to accelerate the deployment of 5G telecom equipment and complete the test of supporting measures with related terminal services. It is preliminarily estimated that the 5G infrastructure will not be completed until 2022.
Deloitte industry insiders also said that the process of 5G mobile phones should be roughly the same as the forecast. The South Korean, American and Chinese markets will gradually realize 5G commercialization in 2019, and the corresponding terminals are mainly smart phones. Related data shows that Huawei has signed 26 5G contracts worldwide, and more than 10,000 5G base stations are sent to all over the world. The 5G Economic and Social Impact White Paper issued by the China Institute of Information and Communication predicts that 5G will drive China's direct output of 484 billion yuan in 2020, to 3.3 trillion in 2025, and 6.3 trillion in 2030, with an average annual compound rate of 29% over the decade.
Besides, the heat of 5G is not only in the field of information and communication, countries around the world are sparing no effort to promote the comprehensive application of 5G technology. In the upcoming 5G era, higher-speed, larger-capacity, lower-latency communication technologies will meet the demand for ultra-large network connectivity, ultra-multiple device connections, and ultra-high mobility. The market predicts that in the first quarter of 2019, 5G terminals will be available in the market. Operators will clearly define the networking and experimental network construction plans. The experimental network collection and construction will begin in the first to second quarters, and the probability of issuing 5G commercial licenses in the third quarter will be relatively large, and 5G will be officially commercialized in 2020.